New York Times

2/19/2008

By Erik Eckholm

The widening gap in higher education between rich and poor, and between whites and minorities, may lead to a downturn in economic mobility, making it harder for today’s poor to move up the income ladder, according to the authors of a major research report issued Wednesday.

The report, the most complete portrait yet of economic mobility, was prepared by scholars at the Brookings Institution in Washington and sponsored by the Pew Charitable Trusts. It found that mobility had not changed significantly over the last three decades - though there was some evidence it might have worsened - and that family background remains a large predictor of future income.

An increase in mobility would lessen the sting of rising inequality and reinforce the widely held belief that anyone can make it in America through talent and hard work.

But some signs point in a more ominous direction. The study warns of a widening education gap between Hispanic and black Americans on the one hand and whites and Asians on the other, which may make it all the harder for minority youths to enter the middle class or higher.

“A growing difference in education levels between income and racial groups, especially in college degrees, implies that mobility will be lower in the future than it is today,” said Ron Haskins, a former Republican official and welfare expert who wrote the education section of the new report.

There is some good news, as the study highlights the powerful role that college degrees play in helping people change their station in life. It says someone born into a family in the lowest fifth of earners who then graduates from college has a 19 percent chance - roughly one in five - of joining the highest fifth of earners in adulthood, and a 62 percent chance of joining the middle class or better.

But in recent years only 11 percent of children from the poorest families have earned college degrees, compared to 53 percent of children from the top fifth.

“The American dream of opportunity is alive, but frayed,” said Isabel Sawhill, another author of the new report, “Getting Ahead or Losing Ground: Mobility in America.”

“It’s still alive for immigrants but badly tattered for African-Americans,” said Ms. Sawhill, an economist who was a budget official in the Clinton administration. “It’s more alive for people in the middle class than for people at the very bottom.”

The report, and planned further studies, constitute the most comprehensive effort yet to examine inter-generational mobility in the nation, said John E. Morton of the Pew Trusts, who is managing the project. It draws heavily on a federally supported survey run by the University of Michigan that has followed thousands of families since the late 1960’s. A chapter of the report released last fall found startling evidence that a majority of black children born to middle-class parents grew up to have lower incomes and that nearly half of middle-class black children fell, in adulthood, into the bottom fifth, compared to only 16 percent of middle-class white children.

The Pew-sponsored studies are continuing, with the involvement of a range of think tanks and scholars. Another report expected this spring, by the more conservative Heritage Foundation, will focus on explanations for the trends described in the current report.

Stuart Butler, vice president for economic studies at the Heritage Foundation, said, “It does seem in America now that for people at very bottom, it’s more difficult to move up than we might have thought or might have been true in the past.”

But he said experts are likely disagree about the reasons why, and hence on policies to improve mobility. Conservative scholars like Mr. Butler are more apt to blame cultural norms and the breakdown of families while liberals put more stress on the changing structure of the economy and the need for government to provide safety nets and targeted aid for poor families.

“We may well have an economy that rewards certain traits that are typically passed on from parents to children - the importance of education, optimism, a propensity to work hard, entrepreneurship and so on,” Mr. Butler said. To the extent that the economy rewards those traits, he said, “you’d expect the incomes of children to track more with that of their parents.”

The small fraction of poor children who earn college degrees are likely to rise well above their parents’ status, the study showed.

But more than half of children born to upper-income parents - those in the top fifth - who finish college remain in that top group. And nearly one in four remains in the top fifth even without completing college.

Evidence from model programs shows that early childhood education can have lasting benefits, Mr. Haskins said, although the federal Head Start program is too uneven to bring wide gains.

In addition, he said, studies show that many poor but bright children do not receive good advice about how to apply for college and scholarships, or do not receive help once they start college. “If we did more to help them complete college, there’s no question it would improve mobility,” he said.

The report is available online