By DAVID J. CROSS

Wednesday, October 17, 2007 1:23 PM EDT

The Columbus Dispatch

Early estimates show fewer students left Columbus City Schools this school year than initially expected.

With the official number still is being calculated, district officials expect to see the Columbus student population drop by less than 1,500 students from last year’s enrollment. The 2007-08 operating budget was based on the estimate that the district would lose 3,000 students.

“Right now we are down about 746 student from last year’s enrollment,” said Jeff Warner, a spokesman for the district. Schools use the average daily attendance from the first full week of October to report to the Ohio Department of Education.

The district, which has about 55,000 pupils, still is losing students to publicly funded charter schools and parochial schools, Warner said. However, its losses have been curbed because of successes in the district such as Columbus schools receiving a “continuous improvement” ranking, the equivalent of a C average, on its state report card, he said.

“Columbus City School has a lot of opportunities available to students in the area,” Warner said.

“Even with increased competition, we have a number of students from charter schools coming to our district.”

Warner noted another factor could be the addition of new school buildings. The district is nearing the end of its first two phases of a system wide project to renovate or replace most schools facilities.

Still, Mark Real — president of KidsOhio.org, a not-for-profit education advocacy group — said it can be difficult to pinpoint why more students are staying with the district.

If the current estimates are accurate, Real said that’s good news for the district. But it is most likely too early to give a reason for why it occurred, he said.

“It will take a couple of years to see if this is a real trend,” Real said.

The longer trend has seen the school district drop from a total enrollment of 65,054 students for the 1998-99 school year to 55,690 for the October 2006 count.

Officials attribute the loss of students to the growth in charter, or community schools, as well as the state’s recent voucher program which uses state dollars to help some students attend private schools.

School officials, Real said, should analyze existing data for more detailed information such as the number of students leaving the district in each grade level.

In addition, he said the district should look at schools such as Columbus Alternative High School and Fort Hayes Arts and Academic High School to determine what makes both places desirable.

“That is just really important,” Real said.

“You’ve got people who want to stay in the district but they can’t get the program they want.”

Treasurer Michael Kinneer said he is estimating the district will lose 1,500 students next year.

Financially, the loss of these students would cost the district $8.6 million, he said.

Based on the district’s current student-teacher ratio, 25-1, the district would have to eliminate 60 teacher positions if Kinneer’s projections are accurate.

“We know that we have to make some reductions when we lose students,” he said.

“We know that it is not always possible, but maybe over a number of years it’s possible.”