The Columbus Dispatch

10/9/2005

By Jennifer Smith Richards

The Columbus Dispatch

It’s a guessing game.

More art than science.

Too new to predict anything with accuracy.

Columbus Public Schools leaders say they’re trying, but it’s difficult to pinpoint how many students will leave the district each year for charter schools.

The district says it began forecasting how many would leave last spring, when it said about 6,200 students would enroll in charter schools this school year. That seems a bit off: 7,130 students already had done so as of Wednesday, closer to the 7,400-student prediction for 2007.

Board President Stephanie Hightower said the district needs two or three more years of charter enrollment data before accurate projections can be made.

Meanwhile, officials are short on buses for the charter students. They say they’ll likely cut teaching positions to fill the budget hole the exodus creates.

Some say there’s no reason the district should have to guess at its losses – local charters’ steady enrollment climb for the past five years, along with the experiences of Ohio’s other urban districts, should give the district the tools it needs to make better predictions.

“It’s a mistake to ignore facts,” said Mark Real, executive director of KidsOhio.org, an advocacy group that has conducted charterschool research for the district. In 2003-04, about 6 percent of Columbus students were enrolled in charters; last school year, it was roughly 8 percent. The latest count shows about 11 percent.

“There are more charter schools in Franklin County this year than last year, and they have a higher number of classrooms and offer more grades,” Real said. “I think you have to look at that evidence.”

Board Vice President Terry Boyd said he expects interest in charter schools to taper off. Others, including Superintendent Gene Harris and board member Jeff Cabot, have said they think Columbus schools can compete.

“We’re going to fight for kids and offer what parents want,” Cabot said. “We’ll get them back.”

The problem, Real said, is that traditional school districts elsewhere haven’t been able to overtake charters.

“We’re not aware of any urban district in Ohio where the trend has been reversed,” he said.

Other districts have been hit harder: Dayton had lost more than 26 percent of its potential enrollment to charters last school year, and it’s estimated to be higher than 30 percent now.

“It’s not unreasonable to think that will continue to happen here,” Real said.

Harris says she can’t dwell on what-ifs.

“I can’t predict with accuracy what decisions parents are going to make,” she said. “I can predict with accuracy what we are going to do: spend a lot of time and effort on school programs.”

District leaders say that’s the focus now: making the district better – quickly.

Deputy Superintendent Marvenia Bosley said the district understands the urgency and truly wants to compete. It’s trying to learn what parents want so the district can offer more choices.

KidsOhio.org will help the district with that this fall, when it releases a survey of why parents choose charters. The next step will be selling the district’s best products, board members say.

“We need to market ourselves as well,” Cabot said.

Boyd thinks advertising the district’s assets will draw parents back.

“I think as we become better at what we do and people become more aware of the excellence that exists in Columbus Public Schools, parents will not be persuaded by propaganda,” he said.

But it takes true reform – not just expanding existing programs – to catch parents’ eyes, said Jeanne Allen, president of the charter-supporting Center for Education Reform.

“Are they really, fundamentally trying to change? Doing fundamental reform requires more than just moving the deck chairs around on the Titanic,” Allen said. “I’m encouraged that Columbus and other districts like it are looking at what they have to do to compete. But I don’t think they’re going far enough yet to really compete.”

The district says it’s trying. To begin its fight, it expanded some of its more innovative offerings – such as single-gender classes – this year. It started an online school program and plans to create, among other specialty offerings, programs that cater to gifted students.

“My hope is the public sees we’re not just sitting on our hands waiting, then (being) reactive,” Hightower said.

jsmithrichards@dispatch.com

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